Keith Downey announces run for MnGOP Chair

Keith DowneySaying the MnGOP needs a “turnaround” and a “redesign”, Former State Representative Keith Downey announced his candidacy for Chair of the Minnesota Republican Party in an e-mail to convention delegates and alternates.

Today I am announcing to GOP delegates and alternates statewide my intention to run for State Republican Party Chair. We have a lot of work to do, and it would be an honor to serve as your State Party Chairman!

At its core, the State Republican Party’s job is to provide leadership to advance Minnesota for the future. But to do that, we need a turnaround.

We need to redesign our State Party’s operations.  We need to grow our fundraising and fix our finances.  We need to communicate our principles with clear solutions that engage all Minnesotans. And we need to win.

It is a critical time.  We must do all this not for our own sake, but for the good of the people of Minnesota and our country.  These times demand an excellent Republican Party, and together we can get the job done!

A heartfelt thank you to our current Chairman Pat Shortridge for all he has done, and to his team.  We now need to take the next steps, and they are big ones.

As a businessman and recent State Representative, I hope to earn your confidence with the right combination of principle, skill and experience, and a concrete plan for the gains we need to make.  Look for more information from me soon.

Thank you for your service to the people of Minnesota, and a Happy New Year to you and yours!

Regards,

Keith Downey

Rep. Downey, elected to the State House in 2008, lost his State Senate race against Melisa Franzen in the last election.

I love sports analogies. Political debates can be compared to boxing matches, but Romney and Obama aren’t going twelve rounds, they’re going three. Throw in the Ryan/Biden debate, and you’ve got four rounds, or quarters. This must be why I keep thinking about a football scoreboard when reviewing the past debates and previewing tonight’s final debate. First Quarter: Romney/Obama Domestic Policy Debate Team Romney caught Team Obama’s defense completely off guard, scoring two big touchdowns. Obama’s offense, sluggish and directionless, turned the ball over on a botched snap and missed a 45-yard field goal. The score after one: Romney/Ryan 14, Obama/Biden 0 Second Quarter: Ryan/Biden Vice Presidential Debate With both starting quarterbacks coming off the field in the same period (weird), the Romney offense, with Ryan as the signal-caller, slowed a little, kicking in a chip-shot field goal in the red zone. The Obama offense showed signs of life with Biden under center who finally got Team O on the scoreboard with two through the uprights. The score at the half: Romney/Ryan 17, Obama/Biden 6 Third Quarter: Romney/Obama Town Hall Debate With both starting quarterbacks back out on the field after the half, both teams exchanged touchdowns. Team Obama’s halftime adjustments have Barack looking more alert and feisty, scrambling out of the pocket and calling his own number a time or two. Romney, after a solid quarter, looked like he would put the game away with a slant route through Obama’s shaky Benghazi defense for a fourth touchdown and a solid 18-point lead. The pass was caught, but, after the receiver’s knee was down, the ball was dropped by Team R and recovered by Team O. The officials ruled: fumble. After going to the instant replay booth, referee Candy Crowley said there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn the call on the field. Only after the quarter ended did league officials admit she made a mistake. Obama used the turnover to drive for a quarter ending field goal to pull within 8 points of the challenger. The score after three: Romney/Ryan 24, Obama/Biden 16 Fourth Quarter: Romney/Obama Domestic Policy Debate Even with the surprising third quarter turnover, the play-by-play crew agrees that Romney is going into the final period with most of the momentum. Team Romney is hoping to take advantage of Obama’s tired defense with a steady ground game; rush after rush to keep Obama on his heals and to kill the clock. Obama, down a touchdown and a two-point conversion, not only needs to keep his offense sharp, but also needs to create turnovers. That will be difficult if Romney sustains a methodical ground attack. Okay, that was fun. Or stupid. It probably didn’t make sense by the end. (I probably just wrote this so I could make that cool helmet graphic to go with the post.) Basically, tonight’s debate is Romney’s to lose.
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I love sports analogies. Political debates can be compared to boxing matches, but Romney and Obama aren’t going twelve rounds, they’re going three. Throw in the Ryan/Biden debate, and you’ve got four rounds, or quarters. This must be why I keep thinking about a football scoreboard when reviewing the past debates and previewing tonight’s final debate.

First Quarter: Romney/Obama Domestic Policy Debate

Team Romney caught Team Obama’s defense completely off guard, scoring two big touchdowns. Obama’s offense, sluggish and directionless, turned the ball over on a botched snap and missed a 45-yard field goal.

The score after one: Romney/Ryan 14, Obama/Biden 0

Second Quarter: Ryan/Biden Vice Presidential Debate

With both starting quarterbacks coming off the field in the same period (weird), the Romney offense, with Ryan as the signal-caller, slowed a little, kicking in a chip-shot field goal in the red zone. The Obama offense showed signs of life with Biden under center who finally got Team O on the scoreboard with two through the uprights.

The score at the half: Romney/Ryan 17, Obama/Biden 6

Third Quarter: Romney/Obama Town Hall Debate

With both starting quarterbacks back out on the field after the half, both teams exchanged touchdowns. Team Obama’s halftime adjustments have Barack looking more alert and feisty, scrambling out of the pocket and calling his own number a time or two.

Romney, after a solid quarter, looked like he would put the game away with a slant route through Obama’s shaky Benghazi defense for a fourth touchdown and a solid 18-point lead. The pass was caught, but, after the receiver’s knee was down, the ball was dropped by Team R and recovered by Team O. The officials ruled: fumble.

After going to the instant replay booth, referee Candy Crowley said there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn the call on the field. Only after the quarter ended did league officials admit she made a mistake.

Obama used the turnover to drive for a quarter ending field goal to pull within 8 points of the challenger.

The score after three: Romney/Ryan 24, Obama/Biden 16

Fourth Quarter: Romney/Obama Domestic Policy Debate

Even with the surprising third quarter turnover, the play-by-play crew agrees that Romney is going into the final period with most of the momentum. Team Romney is hoping to take advantage of Obama’s tired defense with a steady ground game; rush after rush to keep Obama on his heals and to kill the clock.

Obama, down a touchdown and a two-point conversion, not only needs to keep his offense sharp, but also needs to create turnovers. That will be difficult if Romney sustains a methodical ground attack.

Okay, that was fun. Or stupid. It probably didn’t make sense by the end.

(I probably just wrote this so I could make that cool helmet graphic to go with the post.)

Basically, tonight’s debate is Romney’s to lose.

Red flags: Maybe the Star Tribune CD8 poll is a joke

Earlier today, the Minneapolis Star Tribune published their poll of CD8 showing Rick Nolan ahead of Congressman Chip Cravaack by 7 points. Later, David Brauer of MinnPost.com explained what “red flags” went up for him with the methodology used by Pulse Opinion Research, the polling firm commissioned by the Strib.

First, POR polls on a single day — Tuesday, Oct. 16 in the Nolan-Cravaack case — compared to three for SUSA and four for Public Policy Polling (which also has a good Minnesota record).

Though pollsters refer to their results as a “snapshot in time,” single-day polling is not a best practice. It is too susceptible to a one day’s news or advertising. It doesn’t allow for callbacks, which some pollsters attempt to mitigate low response rates, perhaps the biggest trap door in this year’s numbers. If POR’s methodology box is gospel, they reached all 1,000 voters in just four hours.

Lesson learned: Polls, like baseball playoff series, should not last one day.

Second, POR only calls land lines, even though a quarter of Minnesotans are cell-phone-only, according to Census Bureau estimates. POR says it augments landline respondents with cell phone panels, but Star Tribune digital editor Dennis McGrath says “that proved difficult at the [Congressional District] level, so it’s land lines only.”

Though there’s some evidence Democrats are underrepresented when cell phones are excluded, that might not be the case in the 8th. This is a split district, with a more DFL north (Duluth, Iron Range) and a GOP south (what I call the Emmer Exurbs). Cell phone coverage is spottier in the more remote north, so POR might have missed a lot of young Republicans.

Lesson learned: Mobile phones exist on the Iron Range.

Then there’s using POR in the first place. Fivethirtyeight.com polling analyst Nate Silver gave Pulse Opinion Research remarkably low marks for the 2010 cycle, noting they “missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters.”

Lesson learned: If a lefty stat nerd can’t trust your polling firm, why should we.

The Star Tribune already has a terrible track record with their polls; you’d think they’d want to be accurate one of these elections.

Is Cravaack in danger of losing CD8?

The Minneapolis Star Tribune released a poll this morning showing Rick Nolan ahead of Congressman Chip Cravaack by 7 points. Conservatives love to tease the Strib over their liberal-leaning polls, but let’s compare the internals to a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll conducted last week.

Both polls had a Voter ID of Democrats +7. The Strib poll was D 37, R 30, I 33; KSTP/SurveyUSA was D 35, R 28, I 32.

The Strib poll interviewed more people (1,000 likely voters vs. 578), so they have a smaller margin of error: ±3.0% vs. KSTP/SurveyUSA’s ±4.2% margin of error.

KSTP/SurveyUSA had the race Nolan 46, Cravaack 45 between October 7 and 9. The Star Tribune has the race Nolan 50, Cravaack 43 from their October 16 phone calls.

With independents, Cravaack has a lead in both polls, but the lead shrank in the Strib poll. KSTP/SurveyUSA independents: Cravaack 53, Nolan 36; a 17-point lead. Star Tribune independents: Cravaack 48, Nolan 41; a 7-point lead.

It’s easy to ignore Star Tribune polls, but conservatives should use this to get extra motivated to keep that important seat.

For perspective: in 2010, the only poll listed by Real Clear Politics, a SurveyUSA poll conducted about five days before the election had Jim Oberstar up by 1 point (±3.9% MOE). Cravaack would end up winning by 1.6%.

Minnesota Jobs Tax: When you tax something you get less of it

John Spry, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Business Economics at St. Thomas and Late Debate Senior Economist, wrote a wonderful op-ed for yesterday’s Saint Paul Pioneer Press. In it, he describes the folly of a poorly written corporate income tax code that penalizes the expansion of payrolls in Minnesota.

Corporations creating more jobs in Minnesota would get a larger tax bill as punishment for their expended payrolls. Minnesota would have the worst corporate tax environment in the industrialized world under the DFL leaders’ proposal.

These bills lack economic or common sense.

When you tax something you get less of it.

Taxing firms based on their Minnesota payroll sends a powerful message that Minnesota doesn’t want job-creating investments. Accounting firms will warn their clients against growing jobs in Minnesota.

“…[W]orst corporate tax environment in the industrialized world…”. When a highly-respected, non-partisan economist uses words like that, we should listen.

On Saturday, Jack Tomczak and I interviewed Matthew Boyle, an investigative reporter with The Daily Caller, about an article tying Senator Amy Klobuchar to Ponzi-schemer Tom Petters. The connection is not just from campaign donations, but also from then-Hennepin County Attorney Klobuchar not prosecuting Petters in 1999 while two of his co-conspirators were prosecuted.

Klobuchar used the power of her office in 1999 to ensure Petters was not charged with financial crimes. And despite significant evidence against him, she cleared the way for Petters to build his multibillion-dollar illegal empire by prosecuting only his early co-conspirators.

One of those co-conspirators, Richard Hettler, told The Daily Caller that Klobuchar was aware of what Petters was doing, yet willingly accepted campaign donations from Petters’ company and its employees.

“She took Ponzi money to get elected,” he insisted.

Intellectual dishonesty in the political press: a perfect example

Gabriel Debenedetti, who is covering the 2012 election for the London-based Reuters from New York, wrote an article today showing how many 2008 McCain voters are “defecting” to Obama.

In today’s highly polarized political environment it is somewhat surprising to find voters who backed John McCain in 2008 and now support President Barack Obama, but they exist.

Roughly 5 percent of respondents in Reuters/Ipsos polls said they chose the Republican contender in 2008 and will switch to Obama in 2012. This number peaked at around 9 percent two separate times over the summer, according to data collected since January.

Debenedetti goes on to find some of these defectors to see why they are switching. Reasons include personality, Romney’s refusal to release his tax statements, and (really?) Mormonism.

Then, in the very last paragraph of the article, 17 paragraphs and 652 words in, this paragraph ends the piece:

The defectors to Obama remain a smaller subset of respondents than those who voted for him in 2008 and now support Romney. The Reuters/Ipsos polling shows 10 percent of voters plan to cross the aisle in that direction.

So twice as many people are defecting from Obama to Romney, but Gabriel Debenedetti is only going to mention that at the bottom of the inverted pyramid.

This is why people don’t trust the press. This is why people think the press has a liberal bias.

This reporter didn’t just bury the lede, he put a bullet in the lede and dumped it in international waters.

Is Minnesota in play?

Is Minnesota a battleground state? Of course not. But it looks like the Obama campaign is spending some unexpected time an money in the Star of the North. This after a Republican pollster reported Obama leading in Minnesota by only 4 points: 47-43.

NBC’s Chuck Todd reports that the Obama campaign is buying radio ad time in Minnesota as well as sending Laughin’ Joe Biden’s wife Dr. Jill to the state.

“Half in play” is generous, but this unforeseen attention is very interesting.

Hat tip: BattlegroundWatch.com